2 de março de 2024

Political risk assessment

“Explanations exist; they have existed for all time; there is always a well-known solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong”

- H.L. Mencken, American journalist (1880-1956)

In the 2022 elections, Brazil experienced the consolidation of an extreme polarization process that overflowed from political platforms to everyday life. One in every seven Brazilian citizens has severed relations with friends during the campaign, and the overwhelming majority doesn’t regret fighting over politics, even after the results came out. But intolerance is just the tip of the iceberg in a divided society: one out of every four Brazilian citizens claims to be bothered by the possibility of their children attending school with others whose parents have differing political views. Almost one-third of the Brazilian voters claim they would be upset if their son or daughter-in-law had voted for a different candidate than theirs.  

With a Master’s degree in Political Science, a thesis on the return of populism, and a published book on extreme polarization in Brazil, Mr. Traumann helps companies navigate these turbulent waters.

Political risk

The main variable affecting investments in Brazil is politics. It was the power struggles in Brasília, scandals, and radicalism that drove Brazil into the worst recession in its recent trajectory, the most protracted economic upturn ever recorded, and the most polarized election in history.

A seasoned professional with experiences inside and outside the government, Mr. Traumann has the necessary tools to analyze and assess risks that might affect businesses and the financial market. He has advised several banks, investment funds, and institutional investors both in Brazil and abroad, helping them analyze and avoid unnecessary exposure under critical scenarios.

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